The Olympic qualification race (Part II)

Olympic standards v National records

Where do Indian athletes stand in the Olympic qualification race?

In 22 of the 43 events (excluding four relays) that would be featured in the Rio track and field programme, the Olympic standards are tougher than the Indian National records today.  We are not counting those events in which national records were bettered in the process of achieving the standards, for example women’s shot put .

The 22 events with national marks in parenthesis: Men: 100m-10.16s (10.30s), 200m-20.50s (20.66s), 400m-45.40s (45.48s), 1500m-3:36.20 (3:38.00), 5000m-13:25.00 (13:29.70), 10,000m-28:00.00 (28:02.89), 3000m steeplechase-8:30.00 (8:30.88), 110m hurdles- 13.47s (13.65s), 400m hurdles-49.40s (49.51s), High jump-2.29m (2.25m), pole vault-5.70m (5.13m), long jump-8.15m (8.09m), hammer-77.00m (72.86m*), javelin -83m (82.23m), Decathlon 8100 pts (7658).

Women: 100m-11.32s (11.38s), 100m hurdles-13.00s (13.38s), high jump-1.93m (1.92m), pole vailt-4.50m (4.15m), triple jump-14.15m (14.11m), hammer-71.00m (62.74m), javelin -62m (59.53m).

Qualified in 10 events

Of the 21 events left Indian athletes have already qualified in 10 of them, men’s marathon (Nitendra Singh Rawat, Kheta Ram and T. Gopi),  shot put (Inderjeet Singh), discus (Vikas Gowda), 20km walk (Gurmeet Singh, Chandan Singh and Baljinder Singh), 50km walk (Sandeep Kumar and Manish Rawat) and women’s 800m (Tintu Luka), marathon (O. P. Jaisha, Sudha Singh and Kavita Raut), 3000m steeplechase (Lalita Babar), Manpreet Kaur (shot put) and Khushbir Kaur and Sapna (20km walk).

The 11 other events are: Men’s 800m and triple jump; women’s 200m, 400m, 1500m, 5000m, 10,000m, 400m hurdles, long jump, discus throw and heptathlon.  These are events in which the Olympic standards are lower than our National records and yet some of them would be too stiff to even think of attaining.

Take for example the men’s 800 metres. Sriram Singh’s fabled record set in the Montreal Olympics in 1976, that of 1:45.77, has stood the test of time. It looks set to last for many more years. The next best to the Rajasthan and Army athlete’s national record is 1:46.26 by Pankaj Dimri at Patiala in 2010. Dimri’s best after that happens to be 1:49.38 in 2012. The Olympic qualification standard stands at 1:46.00. Jinson Johnson, India’s best two-lapper last year who took the Asian championships silver, has a PB of 1:47.58.

Looking at the 22 events where the national records would not be enough to crack the Olympic standard, as in the past, we can look at the field events with more hope than the track events. And within track events we can look at distance events with a little more optimism than the sprints. Not in terms of the prospects of those who have already clinched a berth but towards qualification alone. The qualified athletes’ chances could be analyzed at a later date.

In men’s sprints, Dharambir Singh’s national record of 20.66s for the 200m and Arokia Rajiv’s PB of 45.57s for the 400m, both clocked last year, may look encouraging when viewed against the standards of 20.50s and 45.40s. They are in no way easy to achieve and it would take Herculean efforts from both these athletes if they were to nail these marks.

The men’s 100m standard of 10.16s should settle all debates even before someone starts talking about the chance of an Indian athlete making it. The Indian record stands at 10.30s. For comparison purposes we can recall the feat of American Jim Hines in 1968 when he became the first man to break the 10-second barrier with a time of 9.95s to win the Olympic title in Mexico City.

Turning our attention towards women sprinters we find both Dutee Chand and Srabani Nanda, the Odisha athletes, are chasing the 200m norm of 23.20s. Dutee is yet to proceed on a foreign training mission that she wants to undertake desperately even as she has expressed doubts about the recent IOC Consensus statement on sex reassignment and hyperandrogenism.

IOC, IAAF not to block Dutee

This correspondent was told by the IOC recently that not only was Dutee eligible for Rio but the IOC had no plans to bring in its own hyperandrogenism rules like it had for the 2012 Olympics. It wanted the issues raised by Dutee’s appeal to the CAS and the latter’s stay on the IAAF hyperandrogenism regulations to be resolved before it thought about its own fresh rules. It, however, asked the IAAF to pursue the case in CAS.

The IAAF, according to a report in the Toronto Star, was not thinking in terms of going back to CAS within the time available before Rio.

That should leave Dutee in some comfort in her efforts to target the 23.20s for the 200m, presuming that the 11.32s standard for the 100m looks beyond the reach of any of the Indian sprinters right now. The National record in 100m is 11.38s.

Dutee has a best of 23.57s in the 200m clocked in the Asian junior championships in 2014. Srabani Nanda has 23.54s clocked while winning the bronze in the Asian championships in Wuhan last year. Only Saraswati Saha (22.82 NR in 2002), Vinita Tripathi (23.04s in 2000) and Rachita Mistry (23.10s in 2000) have clocked better than 23.20s in the history of Indian athletics.

A relatively easier task awaits M. R. Poovamma in the 400m where the standard is 52.20s. Poovamma has a best of 51.73 clocked in 2014. The Karnataka woman had a 52.60s in one of the Asian GPs last year while she won the South Asian Games title in a hand-timed 54.1.

Jisna in fray for Olympic norm

One more athlete from among the big batch of probable relay runners is sure to aim for Olympic qualification in the individual 400. The 17-year-old Jisna Mathew had a PB of 53.14s clocked while taking the Commonwealth Youth Games silver last year.  Coach P. T. Usha feels her ward has the potential to go for the Olympic standard.

O. P. Jaisha’s PB of 15:18.30 for the 5000m in Incheon Asian Games (standard 15:24.00) gives her the confidence that she would be able to make it in this event, too, apart from the marathon for which she has qualified but which she is not keen on running. A final decision has to be taken in consultation with coach Nikolai Snesarev who is reportedly in favour of Jaisha running the marathon. A place in the final in the 5000m is a possibility for Jaisha. But will it be greatly different from a top-20 finish in marathon? 
Suriya Loganathan (PB of 15:45.75 at South Asian Games in Guwahati) could be expected to work hard towards qualification.

In men’s 5000m and 10,000m the standards of 13:25.00 and 28:00.00 look beyond the reach of Indian distance runners. Both are better than the existing National records in the names of Bahadur Prasad (13:29.70 in 1992) and Surender Singh (28:02.89 in 2008).

With Kheta Ram and T. Gopi having made the marathon grade and not likely to go for qualification on the track, only Suresh Kumar Patel, from among those regulars in distance events, can be considered as one athlete who could be aiming for the standard in 10,000m. He has PBs of 13:42.28 and 28:58.22 for the two distance events.

The hurdles look tough for both men and women. The 110m hurdles standard of 13.47s looks intimidating in front of the National record of 13.65s in the name of Siddhanth Thingalaya. It was in chasing the 2012 ‘B’ standard of 13.60s that Thingalaya got injured in Brussels. Since then he has not been able to strike top form though he did equal his National record at Patiala in 2014.

Early 2016 season suggests Thingalaya is at least making a serious attempt to get back into top gear for the outdoor season. In two successive meets in the US, at Seattle and at Flagstaff, Arizona, in January, Thingalaya clocked indoor national records for the 60m hurdles in heats and finals to bring it up to 7.80s.

There is no serious contender to qualify in the 400m hurdles given the fact that the best man last season, Durgesh Kumar Pal timed 50.29 in the Fed Cup, his PB which is way off the standard of 49.40s. Joseph Abraham’s National record stands at 49.51s.

Among women there was some talk of Ashwini A. C. or Jauna Murmu going for the 400m hurdles standard of 56.30s. Their performance in the South Asian Games did not suggest they could be serious contenders. Murmu had 57.69s and Ashwini 58.92s. But they are athletes who have come up with most unexpected results in the past and one cannot rule out anything at this stage. P. T. Usha's National record of 55.42s set in the Los Angeles Olympic still stands after nearly 32 years.

No one has come close to Gopal Saini’s National mark of 8:30.88 for the 3000m steeplechase clocked way back in 1981. The Olympic standard happens to be 8:30.00. The best that any of the contenders among the current batch of Indians had timed was 8:36.36 by Jaiveer Singh in 2011. Naveen Kumar  had a best of 8:42.79 last year.  He has a PB of 8:40.39.
(updated 29 Feb 2016)

(Contd in part III)