NADA harps on 'quality testing' (Part I)

Statistics can be deceptive.

Take for instance the press release issued by the National Anti-Doping Agency in January this year: “There has been a significant increase in out-of-competition testing as compared to the previous year. Moreover, the percentage of blood testing has also gone up significantly.”

To have gone back to 2016, an Olympic year, when NADA tested the least number of samples since 2010 (a year after its inception) to focus on comparative figures is illogical, to say the least.

But, let us look at the numbers again, as we have done in the past. A total of 3174 samples in 2017 including 210 blood samples. There were 1495 in-competition tests and 1469 out of competition.

The NADA now claims, among other things, that there was an increase of 49% in urine samples collected out of competition which is more than the global percentage of 46. That may be true but the fact also remains that in athletics, which has been at the head of doping offenders in the recent past, the percentage is still very low at 28% of the total samples.

“There is an increase in out-of-competition testing, too, being 49 per cent for urine samples”, a NADA official has been quoted as saying in a report where the old comparison with the 2016 statistics is once again prominent.

It is true that it is not the number of samples that will determine the success of dope-testing but the quality of the testing as the NADA official pointed out. “Quality” here should not mean the way the samples are tested in the laboratory though that matters the most, but the way in which a National Anti-Doping Organisation (NADO) or any other testing agency develops and implements its in-competition and out-of-competition test distribution plan.

But do numbers also matter? They surely do as can be seen in the chart below:

NADA testing (2012-2017)
2012	Urine IC		Urine OOC		Blood IC		Blood OOC		Total samples	Total positive	%
	2403	positive	1410	positive	130	positive	225	positive	4168	138	3.3
		130		8		0		0
2013	2579	88	1494	5	42	0	159	0	4274	93	2.2
2014	1820	86	2225	13	14	0	281	0	4340	99	2.3
2015	3123	97	1611	13	177	0	251	0	5377	110	2.1
2016	1369	62	1330	11	24	0	108	0	2831	73	2.6
2017	1495	55	1469	16	68	0	142	0	3174	71	2.2

Source: WADA annual statistics 

“There is an increase in number of blood samples (we have tested) to 210 and that is more than conducted by Japan and South Korea,” the NADA official was quoted as saying.

Note the number of blood tests carried out in 2012 (355), 2014 (295) and 2015 (428) in the above chart. When NADA talks about last year’s blood test count having exceeded that of Japan and Korea, it is forgetting its own record in the past years. Statistics can be deceptive when viewed in isolation.

China, Japan testing figures

If we look at the top two countries in Asia in terms of sports achievements, China and Japan, we find that China tested 11049 samples in 2017 and Japan 5043. The figures for 2016 were: China 8233, Japan 5371 and that for 2015: China 13802, Japan 4827. China had 79 positive cases in 2017, 99 in 2016 and 43 in 2015. Japan had five in 2017, 12 in 2016 and 13 in 2015. India’s corresponding figures: 71, 73 and 110.

If the argument that 2015 was run-up to the Olympics and NADA perforce had to hike the number of samples (record so far at 5377) is to be accepted, then the question comes, what about 2016? Was the Olympic year irrelevant in terms of Games build-up and doping practices? Do athletes dope one year ahead of Olympics and allow every trace of the banned substance get washed away for eight or nine months in an Olympic year? The 2016 sample numbers were 2831, a low that has now helped NADA show higher percentages for 2017.

“If we take 1000 athletes who are playing somewhere and conduct tests, it has no meaning. There has to be more systematic testing which we have tried to develop,” the NADA official was quoted as saying.

That is correct. Dope-testing is not nuclear science. Athletes, doctors, coaches, other support personnel, federations and anti-doping agencies are fully familiar (or should be fully familiar) with the system; whom to test, where and when.

That is why there is a test distribution plan, that is why there is a Registered Testing Pool (RTP). An anti-doping agency charts out its yearly plans based on the vulnerability of the sport, the event, recent history, athletes’ rate of progression, qualification process if any, major competitions round the corner, and the resources available at its disposal.

Despite all the talk of “quality testing”, intelligence-based testing etc, in-competition testing is a must if not to catch the dope cheat at least to provide the deterrence value as well as to assure the ‘clean’ athletes.

“We will take care of the dopers, you compete without a care” should be the assurance NADA should be giving out to the “clean” athletes.

That has not happened. And that is where all these “quality testing” and target-testing become mere slogans. Everyone associated with sports or anti-doping in this country knows that athletics and weightlifting dominate the doping scene. It is a world-wide phenomenon.

A look at the figures below will reveal how NADA has illogically concentrated on institutional meets, college competitions and state-level meets while ignoring National meets and has yet talked about focusing on “top Indian sportspersons”:

The following account of testing conducted by NADA in 2017, as published by it, does not include international competitions, athletics meets that have been given separately below, selection trials and out-of-competition testing (A few details for a couple of months are missing since they are not available):
Jan 2017	Inter-Services hockey	New Delhi
	Chief Minister’s State-level weightlifting championship	Thanjavur
	Delhi University inter-college powerlifting, weightlifting & best physique championship	New Delhi
Feb	Inter-Services wrestling championship	Pune
	Inter-Services best physique championship
	Senior National taekwondo championship
April	Fed Cup Sr National bodybuilding & best physique championships	Goa
May	Under-19 football tournament	Hyderabad
	Under-19 football tournament	Vizag
June	Under-19 football tournament	Chandigarh
	Under-19 football tournament	Jammu
	Under-19 football tournament	Bengaluru
	Under-19 football tournament	Ranchi
July	Under-19 football tournament	New Delhi
August	Senior National powerlifting championship	Alappuzha
	Pro Kabaddi League	New Delhi
September	Inter-Services cricket championship	New Delhi
	Pro Kabaddi League	New Delhi
	Inter-Services aquatics championship	Bengaluru
	National Senior and Junior MTB Cycling championship	Pune
	Inter-Services boxing championship	Mumbai
October	Inter-Services wrestling championship	New Delhi
	All-India Police wrestling cluster	Pune
	National boxing championship	Vizag
December	All-India Railways weightlifting championship	Kapurthala

So, what has NADA done to support its argument that it is not a question of blindly going out there and testing the first sportsperson that appears at a stadium or a training venue but a more intelligent approach of focusing on sport that could be more prone to doping than others and on athletes who are striking world-class form out of the blue?

(Contd. Part II)