Will the athletes add to the gold tally?

With India struggling to climb up the medals table mainly because of its inability to add to the gold won by shooter Jitu Rai on the first day of competition in the Asian Games in Incheon, all eyes would be focused on the athletics events starting on Saturday, 27th September.

In Guangzhou in 2010, Indian athletes had contributed a dozen medals including five gold medals, finishing second on the athletics roster behind China. That tally looks almost impossible to replicate. But don’t be too sure. No one expected India to win that many in athletics last time!

Chief coach Bahadur Singh has forecast a collection of 12 to 15 medals this time. It could be tough but not impossible. The truth is no one is sure how well our athletes had been “prepared”. If the preparations have gone on as per plans then Bahadur’s prediction would come to fruition, otherwise reaching double digits in the medals tally could be a problem as it was in the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. In fact in the CWG it was a below-par effort of one gold, one silver and one bronze.

Dozen the target

A dozen medals in Incheon could be an attainable target for India, but that is only if everything falls into place. Otherwise it could be just half of that tally.

Let us take a look at the key events in which Indian athletes could be aiming for medals.

Men

800m-Sajeesh Joseph ran a PB 1,46.81 in the Fed Cup at Patiala. There are eight other men in the field who have clocked better than that this season. But then the 800 or the 1500 do not pan out as per timings and records. Favourites can find themselves struggling on the straight sometimes just as Bilal Mansoor Ali of Bahrain found out in Guangzhou in 2010. Abdulrahman Musaeb Bala of Qatar should be the favourite this time. He has eight of the top-10 timings in Asia this season, with a best of 1,44.03 for the second place in Rieti, Italy, earlier this month. Sajeesh will have to battle it out with Abdulaziz Ladan Mohamed of Saudi Arabia, Sho Kawamoto of Japan and Abraham Rotich Kipchirchir of Bahrain in his drive to get a minor medal. A bronze for the 27-year-old Indian would be a creditable feat.

110m hurdles-Siddhanth Thingalaya has not yet realized his potential. An unfortunate hamstring injury while aiming for the Olympic qualification in a meet in Brussels in 2012 put the brakes on his progress. He did clock a national record of 13.65s even as he suffered the injury. He equaled that mark at Patiala to make it to the Indian team. He is only fourth in Asia with that mark this season, the leading time being the 13.23s clocked by Chinese Xie Wenjun in Shangahi while winning the Diamond League race. Abdulaziz Al-Mandeel of Kuwait is the other front-runner in the event though the Chinese has a clear edge. Reigning Asian champion Jiang Fan is also in the line-up though not at his best this season. Thingalaya will need to stretch himself to get the bronze.

Arpinder leads the Asian lists

Triple jump-Arpinder Singh is the Asian leader with his sensational national record of 17.17m at Lucknow. He bagged the bronze at the Commonwealth Games, though with an inferior  16.70m. There is no other Asian jumper with a 17-metre mark this season. That doesn’t make the 22-year-old Indian the favourite, though. Chinese Cao Shuo, with his 16.83 at the Continental Cup at Marrakech, Morocco, has projected himself as a strong contender for the top honours along with team-mate Dong Bin. Arpinder, who skipped the Continental Cup, rather inexplicably, will have to battle it out with the two Chinese. Renjith Maheswary, the former National record holder who could manage only 15.91 at Marrakech, but produced a 16.61m at the Patiala re-trials, has not been in the best of form this season. Arpinder’s consistency will be on test in Incheon. It is suspect at this point. Renjith will have to bring out all his experience to be able to get among the medals. Local favourite Kim Duk-Hyung has jumped 16.61m this season and can get among the medals.

Discus-This is the best chance Vikas Gowda has to become an Asian Games champion. He would be back at the same venue that saw him clinch his first Asian silver in 2005 as a 22-year-old. Iranian Ehsan Hadadi, Olympic silver medallist in London, and defending Asian Games champion, is not in the best of form. Yet he has a 65.23 to Gowda’s 65.62 for the season. Gowda was more consistent around 63-64 metres early on this season, but has come down to around 62-metre-plus which is what Hadadi also has been throwing of late. Hadadi has an impressive  15-1 record against Gowda, the two being even for the season. Having taken the gold in Glasgow Gowda should be on a ‘high’. He looks the best candidate among Indian men to get a gold. Mohammad Samimi (65.46m in July) is the other major contender in discus.

Women

400m-M. R. Poovamma who led the Asian season lists for quite some time has a close challenger in Kemi Adekoya of Bahrain, who should also be running in the 400m hurdles. She is the favourite in both the events. Adekoya leads the season lists with 51.32 to Povamma’s 51.73. Poovamma was a little disappointing in Glasgow, beaten twice by Sri Lankan Chandrika Subhashini Rasanayake who should be among the medal contenders here. A bronze for the Karnataka girl looks possible. Kazakhs Yulia Rakhmanova and Elina Mikhina would be the other major actors.

800m-Tintu Luka has to shed the tag of a ‘choker’ in big championships. She heads the Asian lists for the season with her 2,00.56, but has not done too well after her Doha performance in May. She was eliminated in the semifinals in Glasgow and was eighth and last in the Continental Cup this month. Kazakhstan’s Margarita Mukasheva (nee Matsko) who won in Guangzhou is once again Tintu’s closest challenger, timing-wise. Or should it be the other way round? Tintu’s inability to produce the kind of finish that wins middle distance races had been a cause for concern among athletics enthusiasts apart from coach P. T. Usha. Once again there is hope that she would run a modest opening lap of around 58.2 secs to be in a position to challenge the others through the final 250 metres. Too fast or too slow for the lap has often left Tintu out of the race by the 600 metres and her inability to ‘kick’ on the home straight has proved to be a great handicap.  Tintu has worked hard this season in the build-up towards the Games. Her own pacing will determine whether she gets the gold or silver or ends up as she did in Guangzhou. Team-mate Sushma Devi who scored a rare win over Tintu at the Lucknow Inter-State should also be aiming for a medal here.

1500m/5000m-O. P. Jaisha, medal winner in the Doha Games, back in great form this season, should have fairly good chances of landing a medal in either of these events if not both. Two Bahrainians Mimi Belete and Maryam Yusuf Jamal, two-time world champion, should be the top contenders in the 1500m. Both have also been entered for the 5000m.

3000m steeplechase-Ruth Jebet of Bahrain, denied the Asian title in Pune because of eligibility questions, is eligible for the Games. The former Kenyan, aged 17, looks unbeatable. For India, Lalita Babar, more than defending champion Sudha Singh, looks poised to grab a medal. Of what colour is difficult to tell, quite possibly the bronze.

Chinese not unbeatable

Discus-Normally the Chinese look too formidable in this event that we don’t even think of picking an Indian as among the contenders for the gold or silver. Not this time, though. The leading Chinese this season, Yang Yanbo (63.31) or the second ranked Chinese, Su Xinyue (61.31) have not been entered. Instead we have Lu Xiaoxin and Tan Jian. This should raise Indian hopes, especially that of Seema Antil Punia who took the silver in the CWG. Seema leads the entry lists for the season with 61.61 followed by Lu at 60.68. Strange though it may sound, Seema is making her Asian Games debut and should be aiming for the yellow metal, though the recent past favours the Chinese. Last edition’s bronze medallist. Krishna Poonia has had fitness problems that hampered her at Glasgow. It is not clear how far she has improved. A medal for her could be possible yet.

4x400m relay-The Indian quartet clocked Asia’s leading time for the season in the trials at Patiala at 3,29.93. Japan, China and Kazakhstan should be looking for a chink in the Indian line-up. Three of the suspended athletes of 2011, Priyanka Panwar, Mandeep Kaur and Ashwini A. C. are in the team though the last two may not figure in the final. India’s strength in this event is likely to be evident once again. If there is a sure gold medal to be had from athletics for India then there is no better event than this one.

20km walk-Khushbir Kaur is the third best in the fray with her national record of 1,31.40 set at the World Cup at Taicang, China, this season. The Chinese look too strong to allow any one to upset their one-two domination. Kaur should take at least the bronze.

The other Indians who could be in contention could be men’s 10,000m runner Rahul Kumar Pal, steeplechaer Naveen Kumar, shot putter Indrajit Singh, women’s metric miler Sinimole Markose and high jumper Sahana Kumari.